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A | 章丘：与“企”同行共赴荣光　　城市，总是与企业、人才共生共荣、相互成就。

RALEIGH, N.C. – The 2024 election promises to feature several major battlegrounds, but for sheer breadth of competitive contests, North Carolina next year will be hard to beat.

It starts with the presidential race. Recent presidential contests in North Carolina have been close: In 2020, Donald Trump won North Carolina by about 74,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast. Experts expect a competitive race again in 2024.

In addition, a newly empowered GOP majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court is poised to redraw the congressional map to benefit Republicans, producing the possibility of competitive races.

Meanwhile, the parties will fiercely contest both chambers of the legislature, which the GOP currently controls by narrow supermajorities, thanks to a Democrat-to-Republican party-switcher in the state House earlier this year. That party switch, by state Rep. Tricia Cotham, now enables Republicans to enact a strongly conservative agenda over the vetoes of Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper if they wish.

Cooper, for his part, is term-limited, teeing up a knock-down, drag-out contest to succeed him, likely between Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

And that isn’t it for falling dominoes: The decisions by Stein and Robinson to seek the governorship leave their old offices of attorney general and lieutenant governor up for grabs in 2024, joining the GOP-held offices of state treasurer and labor commissioner as open-seat contests. The Democratic-held offices of secretary of state and auditor and the Republican-held offices of schools superintendent, insurance commissioner and agriculture commissioner will also be contested in 2024, with varying degrees of competitiveness.

In other words, in 2024, North Carolina will be one of the centers of the political universe – important in part because it’s a uniquely competitive state.

“There’s no telling who will win in 2024, but I’d bet half-court tickets to the UNC-Duke game that it will be close and North Carolina will retain its title as the definition of ‘purple,’” says Chris Cooper, a Western Carolina University political scientist (and no relation to the governor).

In recent years, North Carolina has mostly hosted close statewide races. During the 2020 and 2022 elections, North Carolina held 16 federal and state races for statewide office – and no candidate in any of them won more than 54% of the vote.

In addition, unlike most states in this highly polarized age, North Carolina has elected a thorough mix of Democrats and Republicans to statewide executive offices, which suggests that voters in the state – or at least a crucial subset of them – are willing to split their tickets.

The Republicans have done best in Senate and presidential contests. In those races, the GOP has kept a consistent – if modest – edge. It’s been a decade and a half since a Democrat has won one of those races. The last to win were Kay Hagan for Senate and Barack Obama for president, both of them way back in 2008.

“North Carolina has proved to be a purple state, but not necessarily a swing state,” says Cooper, the political scientist. “The statewide outcomes have been among the closest in the country, but Republicans have found themselves just on the winning side of the razor’s edge for presidential and Senate elections.”

The most intriguing contrast one can draw for North Carolina is with one of its neighbors to the south. Could North Carolina follow Georgia’s path in voting blue for Senate and presidential elections?

For the better part of two decades, Georgia, like North Carolina, had voted consistently Republican in key federal races – until 2020. That year, Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock won uphill, and narrow, victories for Senate seats, while Biden was winning the state in the presidential race. In 2022, Warnock won another close election to a full six-year term.

In an era when urban areas have grown bluer by the year, Georgia has seen its major metro area – Atlanta – steadily move toward the Democrats. In 2000, metro Atlanta backed Republican George W. Bush by 4 points. By 2020, the Atlanta metro area backed Biden by 28 points, a whopping 32-point shift.

North Carolina’s biggest metro areas saw a similar pattern.

North Carolina’s Raleigh-Durham metro area backed Gore in 2000 by less than a point. Two decades later, Biden won it by 26 points. The state’s most populous county, Wake County (which includes Raleigh and Cary), favored Bush in 2000 by about a point, but backed Biden by 27.

Similar patterns held in the North Carolina portion of the Charlotte metro area. In 2000, Bush won the Charlotte metro area by 18 points. But by 2020, Biden won the region by 4 points – a 22-point shift. The state’s second largest county, Mecklenburg County (which includes Charlotte), voted for Bush by almost 3 points in 2000 but Biden by a massive 36 points.

Such shifts helped the Democrats narrow the statewide gap substantially in North Carolina. In 2000, Bush defeated Gore statewide by 13 points, whereas Trump defeated Biden by about 1 point.

But these shifts weren’t enough to tip the state to the Democrats in the presidential race. A big reason why: Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte don’t have as large a footprint in North Carolina as metro Atlanta does in Georgia.

In 2020, Atlanta’s metro counties accounted for just shy of a majority of votes cast in Georgia – 49%, up from 46% in 2000. So even as outlying Georgia was growing redder – backing Bush by 19 and Trump by 26 – Democrats were able to turn a 12-point statewide loss by Al Gore in 2000 into a narrow victory for Biden in 2020.

By contrast, the Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte metro areas account for a minority of the state’s voters, growing from 36% of the votes cast in 2000 to 42% in 2020.

In other words, in North Carolina, the Democratic gains in the two big metro areas were nearly canceled out by the large and growing GOP margins elsewhere.

“North Carolina has the second most rural voters in the country after Texas, so running up the score in Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte won't get you victory the way Atlanta does in Georgia,” says Cooper, the political scientist. “There’s been a massive Republican gain in rural areas”

Over the next quarter-century, Wake and Mecklenburg counties are projected to grow dramatically faster in population than most other North Carolina counties, according to calculations by the state’s Board of Science, Technology & Innovation. Over the long term, this could make the state bluer.

But for now, North Carolina’s political balance of power belongs in the hands of “countrypolitan" counties, a term coined by Mac McCorkle, a longtime North Carolina consultant who now teaches at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy, and Rachel Salzberg.

These 28 counties sit within the economic and commuting orbit of North Carolina’s metro areas, but they’re located on the outlying edge, and they lack the racial diversity, college attainment levels and higher incomes that increasingly align with voting Democratic.

By McCorkle’s and Salzberg’s calculations, “countrypolitan” counties backed Trump in 2020 by a gaping 63%-36% margin, and collectively they provided Trump with about 50% more raw votes than North Carolina’s 50 most rural counties did.

That’s a major reason why Republicans have remained modestly ahead in North Carolina, at least in high-profile federal races, experts say.

To do well in North Carolina, says Western Carolina’s Cooper, “Democrats don’t have to win the rural vote, but they have to avoid getting pummeled.”

This is the goal of Anderson Clayton, the newly installed head of the state Democratic Party. At 25, Clayton, an Appalachian State University graduate, is the youngest state Democratic chairman in the nation.

“One of the things that I think that I learned from being on national campaigns is that a lot of times the national party is not looking at rural places like they should be,” Anderson told an audience in Union County, according to The Washington Post. “They’re looking at it as a place of a problem. And for me, I got really frustrated with that. It was part of the thing that called me home.”

This advice doesn’t just hold for presidential and Senate races, political observers say. It will also help determine whether Democrats can stay competitive in North Carolina’s state-level offices or whether Republicans start running away with them.

Since the dawn of the 20th century, North Carolina has elected only three Republican governors – one for a term in the 1970s, one for two terms in the 1980s and 1990s, and one for a term in the 2010s.

Historically, the successful Democratic model for winning North Carolina gubernatorial races has been to nominate a candidate who can win in metro areas but who hails from less populated regions of the state and connects with voters there. A good example is the current governor, who helped his family farm tobacco while growing up.

But the pool of potential Democratic candidates from more rural areas “has dried up,” says Rob Schofield, the editor of the online publication NC Newsline. Lining up Democratic candidates to run everywhere, as Clayton seeks to do, will be challenging.

“That counts on people running even if they know they will lose and be sacrificed, which is a hard sell,” says Ferrel Guillory, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of North Carolina.

In any case, the likely 2024 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Stein, is set to break his party’s historic mold. Stein, a former legislator who has won two terms as attorney general, grew up in Chapel Hill, home of the University of North Carolina, and earned his undergraduate degree from Dartmouth and a law degree and a master’s of public affairs from Harvard.

Meanwhile, Stein’s potential Republican opponent also represents departure from past Republican gubernatorial candidates, who have tended to be economic conservatives from metro areas: Robinson is an outspoken social conservative who has flirted with conspiracy theories, ranging from the moon landing to crisis actors in school shootings.

Robinson doesn’t have a clear path to the nomination. In the primary, he faces state Treasurer Dale Folwell, former Congressman Mark Walker, former legislator Andy Wells and retired health executive Jesse Thomas. But he’s considered the front-runner, due to a strong core of support in a state where, by law, 30% plus one is enough to win a primary.

If the race comes down to Stein and Robinson, as conventional wisdom suggests, “it will be an epic and titanic battle that will be bitterly divided and deeply polarizing,” says Michael Bitzer, a professor of politics and history at Catawba College. “Probably the most expensive gubernatorial race in the nation for next year, and it may break state records.”

One unknown for now is how the Republican supermajority flexes its expanded policy muscle.

After years of opposition, the GOP legislature in March passed legislation to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, and Cooper quickly signed it. But after Cotham’s party switch produced a supermajority, Republicans sidestepped Cooper’s veto and passed a 12-week abortion ban, which is being challenged in court.

Passage of the abortion ban could energize Democrats, as it has in other purple and even red states. This could be exacerbated if the GOP passes other laws popular with the party’s socially conservative base but unpopular among moderates. Robinson’s candidacy, too, risks scaring off Republican moderates.

“When the Republicans moved to find some way to accept Medicaid expansion, to me that reflected that, wow, these guys may be understanding their rough edges,” McCorkle says in an interview. “Then the abortion law happens and then Robinson happens. That could explode things.”

John Hood, president of the John William Pope Foundation, a grant-making foundation, says he believes Republicans in the legislature are “realistic.”

“They recognize that either Stein will be governor or Robinson will be governor, and they don’t trust either,” Hood says.

Ultimately, the noise from the presidential race, especially if Trump is the GOP nominee, could drown out everything else down-ballot.

“The national networks and media may be so consumed by the presidential election that state issues may not affect the public’s mind,” Guillory says.

。8月24日，一代儒商孟洛川诞辰日到来之际，“链聚智造章丘　致敬企业家”庆祝章丘区第七个企业家日活动举行。这是章丘以制度致敬企业家、以城市礼遇厚待企业家、以最优生态成就企业家的生动注脚。

B | 　　一座城，礼赞一群人;一群人，成就一座城。

C | 企业家，是区域发展的推动力量、高质量发展的宝贵财富。　　近年来，面对多重压力与繁重任务，章丘始终“尊重企业家、服务企业家、成就企业家”，坚定扛牢经济大区责任，全力稳增长、调结构、促转型，推动经济承压前行、稳中提质。今年上半年，全区地区生产总值实现673.1亿元、增长6.3%，位居全市千亿级区县第二位……亮眼的增长数据，是产业发展的答卷，更是章丘企业家实干担当的最好证明。　　奋进“十五五”开局之年，章丘立足“3+2+2”产业布局，政企同心同向、同力同行，城市全力托举企业，企业全力赋能城市，企业家精神与儒商文化交相辉映，激荡起高质量发展的澎湃浪潮。章丘：与“企”同行共赴荣光　　让企业家精神成为鲜明底色　　精神立则事业兴，企业强则城市强。　　章丘，是一代儒商孟洛川的故乡。

D | 诚信明礼、互利共赢的儒商文化，穿越百年时光，滋养着这片实业沃土。新时代的章丘企业家，承儒商之底蕴，开时代之新局，守实业之本、谋创新之变、担发展之责、尽社会之义。　　自2020年设立企业家日以来，章丘更进一步把尊重企业家作为城市共识，让礼遇企业家成为制度常态，让激励企业家成为发展导向。从经济发展领军、项目建设攻坚，到科技创新引领、人文匠心坚守，从校地协同先锋，到百强实业标杆，广大企业家队伍薪火赓续、梯队成长、群星闪耀，撑起了章丘经济发展的脊梁，托起了区域产业升级的希望。

E | 　　2026年以来，工业增加值同比增长8.7%，规上工业企业完成工业总产值835.37亿元、增长7.77%;华凌电缆3家企业入选国家级绿色工厂，3家企业获评国家级重点专精特新“小巨人”企业;新认定省级制造业单项冠军企业2家，专精特新、创新型中小企业129家;3个企业项目入选省制造业数字化转型揭榜挂帅试点，31家企业获评市级以上智能工厂。博科创业孵化器获评工信部标准级科技型企业孵化器，山东章鼓等5个企业项目入选省重点研发计划，伊莱特能源装备等61个企业项目列入省企业技术创新项目计划，6家企业新认定为市级制造业中试平台……今年以来，章丘以“四大定位”锚定航向，以“项目赋能年”校准坐标，广大企业家聚力“3+2+2”产业体系深耕细作，主动延链、补链、强链，推动主导产业焕新、新兴产业崛起、特色产业提质，让工业经济成为区域稳大盘、固基本、促增长的“压舱石”，一幅经济运行稳中有进、质效双升，高质量发展的画卷徐徐铺展。　　每一项突破，都源自企业家的坚守深耕;每一步跨越，都离不开企业家的实干担当。实践证明，章丘的企业家是敢闯敢创、善作善成的奋斗者，是珍贵的发展资源、坚实的底气所在。　　广大企业家表示，将立足新发展阶段，紧跟时代大势，以创新应对变局，以品质适配需求，以诚信赢得市场，以责任赋能社会，在迭代升级中抢抓新机，在坚守实干中成就长远，让新时代企业家精神生生不息、熠熠生辉。章丘：与“企”同行共赴荣光　　让企业家奋斗成为强劲动能　　弘扬企业家精神，核心是创新，关键是突破，本质是实干。章丘始终坚信，企业的创新活力，就是城市的发展活力;企业家的进取姿态，就是区域的发展姿态。　　围绕创新链、产业链、供应链、要素链、制度链“五链耦合”，章丘全方位搭建创新平台、全链条释放创新空间、全维度保障创新探索，最大限度尊重企业创新、支持企业创新、赋能企业创新，让企业家敢创新、能创新、善创新。全面推行链长制服务模式，靶向服务龙头企业、精准培育配套企业、全力扶持中小企业，构建起了政企协同、共同发展的产业生态。

F | 　　龙头企业发挥“链主”作用，牵头建强产业链、畅通供应链、提升价值链，带动上下游企业协同发展;中小企业深耕细分领域，走专精特新发展道路，共同筑牢章丘产业的“四梁八柱”……广大企业家坚守主业、深耕实业，主动融入全区“3+2+2”产业布局，持续推动传统产业高端化、智能化、绿色化改造。把创新嵌入企业发展基因，对接高校院所创新资源，深化产学研用融合，共建研发平台、共促成果转化。积极布局新质生产力赛道，以技术创新赢得市场主动、塑造发展胜势。抢抓外贸新业态机遇，提升产品附加值和品牌影响力，在更大市场空间中搏击风浪、发展壮大，让更多“章丘造”走向全国、走向世界。　　如今，汽车、先进材料(含化工)、专用装备“三大主导产业链”产值突破1050亿元，占工业总产值比重近八成。这份厚重体量，正是广大企业家聚力攻坚、集群奋进的成果。　　坚持一切围绕项目转、一切围绕企业干，精准开展链式招商、以商招商，保障圣泉增资、银鹭升级、数联天下等重点项目落地见效。用心服务企业成长，明水经济技术开发区获评国家级特色产业园区，圣泉核心技术入选国家级创新典型……每一份荣誉的背后，既有政府倾力护航，更有企业家潜心钻研。　　聚焦数实融合浪潮，章丘纵深推进“智改数转网联”行动，全面落地中小企业数字化转型试点建设，转型落地数量位居全市首位。　　一批企业家主动拥抱数字变革、绿色变革、智能变革，全区新增多家省市智能工厂、智能制造优秀场景、晨星工厂，数十家企业完成DCMM贯标。大批软件产品、大数据项目入选省级重点名录，多家企业获评省市绿色制造标杆……章丘坚持培优育强、梯次赋能，培育壮大企业家创新梯队，用心呵护初创企业、扶持中小企业、做强龙头企业。

G | 全区现有高新技术企业530家、科技型中小企业700家，国家级单项冠军、国家级专精特新“小巨人”企业、省市级专精特新企业数量持续扩容。　　各级创新平台持续落地，关键技术攻关屡结硕果，校地协同深度深化，章丘聘任高校专家担任科技副总，打通成果转化通道，只为让企业家干事有平台、创新有支撑、攻坚有依托。　　从跟跑到领跑，从制造到智造，从深耕到突围，章丘企业家以永不止步的创新精神、永不懈怠的奋斗姿态，持续为区域高质量发展注入最强劲、最持久的内生动力。章丘：与“企”同行共赴荣光　　让尊商重企成为永恒温度　　营商环境是企业生存发展的土壤，尊商亲商是城市发展进步的基础。　　最好的政策，是尊重企业家;最优的环境，是成就企业家。章丘始终将服务企业、赋能企业家作为“一把手工程”，举全区之力厚植兴业沃土、涵养重企生态。　　下沉一线，服务企业家。区工业信息化和科技局、区发展改革局和明水经开区等部门单位扎根企业一线，贴身服务、靠前保障，当好政策宣讲员、难题化解员、政企联络员，第一时间倾听企业家心声、回应企业诉求、解决发展难题。　　聚焦人才需求，全链条引育留用，高端人才持续集聚，为企业发展提供智力支撑。建立企业诉求闭环处置机制，逐项破解项目审批、手续办理、厂房认定等堵点难点，今年累计解决各类企业重点瓶颈问题40余个。常态化开展产销、银企、投融资对接活动，打破发展壁垒、拓宽发展空间。　　创新科技金融服务模式，精准破解科创企业融资痛点，今年为数十家科技型中小企业投放贷款近5亿元，真金白银为企业家创新创业保驾护航。现代物流产业提速增量，行业短板持续补齐，服务业增速稳居全市前列，为企业全链条发展提供坚实配套保障。　　深化改革，赋能企业家。纵深推进“高效办成一件事”改革，政务服务迭代升级、效能持续提速。全面落地省市重点改革事项，推动跨部门事项一网通办、一次办好。深耕“泉心办”品牌、做实“泉惠企”平台，以数字化、精细化服务惠及万千市场主体。创新“亲清会客厅”服务模式，变“企业上门求助”为“干部上门服务”。

H | 区级领导带头下沉园区、工地、商会，面对面听企声、解企忧、促企发展，今年累计开展百余期服务活动，服务企业200余家，解决难题300余个，做到企业有所呼、政府必有所应。　　惠企政策免申即享、直达快享，海量政策智能匹配、精准推送，惠企资金直达市场主体，章丘用最真诚的态度、最务实的举措、最便捷的服务，最大限度降低企业制度成本、减轻企业家经营负担、提振企业发展信心。　　礼遇于心，护航于行。章丘坚持把企业的事当作“自家事”，在保障企业合法权益上持续发力，不断优化法治化营商环境;持续优化公共服务，打造“近悦远来”的城市发展环境;强化宣传引导，营造“尊商、重商、亲商、爱商”的良好氛围，让广大企业家和创业者拥有更强的归属感、获得感与成就感……从制度尊重到生态滋养，从政策赋能到暖心服务，章丘以全方位、全周期、全链条保障，为企业家干事创业撑腰鼓劲、铺路护航。　　政企同心、双向奔赴、聚力笃行，让企业家精神熠熠生辉，让实干奋斗蔚然成风，高质量发展的章丘，步履铿锵! 　　(济南日报·爱济南记者赵赫通讯员孟凡庚刘召岳)。

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